Domestic Economic Indicators 3/2-3/6
Monday 2/2
Personal Income and Outlays
- Personal Income showed a 0.3% raise after a 0.3% increase in December
- This was short of analysts’ forecasts of 0.4% increase
- Personal spending decreased by 0.2% after a decline of 0.3% in December
- Prices also fell, down 0.5% following a 0.2% fall the prior month
- Income growth was healthy in January
- The Personal Income and Outlays is a set of two data points produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis that track personal income and monthly spending
ISM Manufacturing Index
- Fell from 53.5 the month before to 52.9
- This was the slowest growth in 13 months for U.S. manufacturing
- A reading over 50 indicates growth
- Most components of the index declined, suggesting a slowing in growth in the factory sector, though the main index’s 50-plus reading marks the 28th consecutive month of growth in manufacturing
Construction Spending
- Fell 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted rate of $971.4 billion
- This was a result of a decline in both private sector and local and state government building
- Private sector construction fell 0.5%
- Public sector fell 2.6%
- The figure is still up 1.8% from a year ago
Tuesday 2/3
Motor Vehicle Sales
- Down 2.6% to an annual rate of 16.2 million which is the lowest rate since April
- North American made vehicles were down 3.0% to a rate of 13.1 million
- Foreign vehicles were unchanged at 3.1 million
- 3rd straight decline in motor vehicle sales
- Motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending and often are considered a leading indicator at business cycle turning points
Wednesday 2/4
EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Rose an extremely high 10.3 million barrels last week
- This is the 8th straight week of large builds for oil inventories
- Inventories now stand at 444.4 million barrels which broke another 80 year high
- Refineries are cutting back production which is contributing to the oil build
- Gasoline supplies are up 4% and distillates are up 16.8% which is very high for these readings
ADP National Employment Report
- Private sector added 212,000 jobs
- The sectors that added the most jobs were manufacturing, goods producing, and services
- Service providing employment added 181,000 jobs
- Manufacturing added 3,000 jobs
- Shows job growth is still strong but slowing from the fast pace of recent months
- The ADP National Employment Report is report that measures levels of non-farm private employment and is based on payroll data from over half of ADP’sS. business clients
Thursday 2/5
Initial Jobless Claims
- Rose unexpectedly by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 320,000 which was the 2nd consecutive week of increases
- The weather and a strike from refinery workers was likely the cause of the increase
- The four week moving average which is a better measure of labor market trends rose 10,250 to 304,750
Factory Orders
- New orders for manufactured goods fell 0.2%
- This was the 6 straight monthly decline which points to a weakness in the manufacturing sector
- Manufacturing has been hurt from soft demand in Europe and Asia, and a strong dollar
Productivity and Labor Costs
- Productivity declined at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter
- 8% drop was the estimate
- Labor Costs rose at a rate of 4.1% which was faster than the estimated 2.7%
- Usually this combination points towards inflation however analysts say the changes in the 4th quarter are only temporary
- For all of 2014 labor costs were up 1.8% and productivity was up 0.7%
Friday 2/6
Employment Situation
- Nonfarm payrolls increased 295,000
- Unemployment rate dropped 0.2% to 5.5% which is the lowest since May 2008
- This is the rate that some Fed officials consider “full employment”
- The decline in the unemployment rate was mostly due to people dropping out of the labor force
- Average hourly earnings rose 3 cents last month leaving the year on year gain at 2%