Domestic Economic Indicators 2/2/15-2/6/15
Monday 2/2
Personal Income and Personal Spending
- Personal Spending fell 0.3% which miss expectations of a 0.2% decline
- Personal Income rose 0.3% which was better than expected
- For the full year personal income is up 2.5% which is the biggest increase since 2006
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure)
- Showed prices falling 0.2% which was less than the 0.3% decline that was forecasted
- PCE is an indicator used to measure inflation
- PCE excludes the more volatile cost of goods such as food and gas
- For the year PCE is up 0.7% from last year which is lower than the forecasted 0.8% increase
ISM Index (The Institute for Supply Management)
- Index was down to 53.5% in January which was a decrease from 55.1% in December
- Any reading above 50% indicates expansion
- This is an index based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms which monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries
- Many manufacturers that supply components to oil drilling and fracking saw a large decline as the price of fuel has plummeted resulting in oil companies to cut back on expansion
Construction Spending
- Rose 0.4% in December
- The increase was due to a 1.2% increase in single family homes being built, a 2.1% increase in highway and street construction, and a 1.9% increase in factory building
Tuesday 2/3
Factory Orders
- Declined 3.4%
- This was the fifth straight month U.S factory orders fell
- Falling crude prices, a strong dollar, and weakening demand in Europe and Asia were the main causes of the decline
Auto Sales
- Auto Sales increased 13.7% in January
- General Motors reported an 18% increase
- Ford reported a 15% increase
- Fiat Chrylser saw a 14% increase
- The main driver was sales of Trucks and SUVs because of the lower gasoline prices
Wednesday 2/4
ADP Employment Report
- U.S. employers added 213,000 jobs in January
- This fell short of the forecasted 225,000
- The ADP figure comes ahead of the U.S. labor department’s more comprehensive report which includes both public and private sector employment
- The ADP report is a report that measures levels of non-farm private employment. The ADP National Employment Report is based on payroll data from over half of ADP’s U.S. business clients.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Oil inventories were up 6.3 million barrels in the January 30th week
- This was the 4th straight week of large inventory builds and
- Inventories at an 80 year high of 413.1 million barrels which shows refinery production continues to slow
- Inventories of gasoline was up 2.3 million barrels
Thursday 2/5
Trade Balance
- U.S. trade deficit jumped 17.1% to $46.6 billion which is the largest since November 2012
- The strong dollar appears to be encouraging imports and weighing down heavily on exports
- The 17.1% increase may reflect a sputtering global economy
- This will weigh on GDP which had expanded 2.6% in the 4th quarter when it is revised
- Economists are saying as much as four-tenths of GDP will decrease when revised later this month because of the trade deficit increase
Initial Jobless Claims
- Rose by 278,000 for the week ending January 31st
- This was lower than the estimated 290,000
- The previous week initial jobless claims totaled 265,000 which was the lowest in 15 years
Friday 2/6
Unemployment Rate
- Rose 5.7% from 5.6%
- The main reason for this increase was the number of Americans in the workforce rose
- Employers added 257,000 jobs in January
- This increase in jobs along with the rise in wages are leading many to believe that the labor market is in very good shape