Where Gold Goes From Here, Facebook and the Next Market Drama

11/18/13 – 11/19/13

Yesterday, as we saw developing weeks ago, the Dow passed 16,000 on eased Taper worries and wide eyed bulls – both the DJIA and S&P recaptured all-time highs.

Gold continued to steady at 1,270, where it’s taking a wait and see attitude. Amidst what should be very bullish signals for gold via dove policies, the negative investor sentiment that has built toward the precious metal over the last 6 months is keeping prices down. A reasonable path from here is a trip back towards 1,300 with absolute affirmation of Fed policy, but ultimately we expect this unlikely bearish trend to continue to win this fight with weakness down to its next level of support around 1,200. As silver follows suit, we think a bounce back to 21 followed with a slide below 20 is likely.

In Play – $FB

With the attention that the stock has garnered since their infamous IPO and outstanding growth over the last two quarters, we’re keeping tabs.  While we do believe Facebook has tremendous promise and growing presence in global ad world and increased revenue from acquisitions and instagram, the short and medium term prospects for the stock aren’t as exciting. As we noted last week, a break in the 46.70 support level marked a red flag for those looking for a turnaround to 52 week high levels. After the break, when the stock was unable to push past the 49.50 mark, it sold off as investors weighed both the previous breach of support and inability to test resistance as a sign that the stocks best days of 2013 were behind them. We agree.

New Levels, New Devils

As we rear past the unprecedented 16,000 mark, it’s not unreasonable to expect a pullback from these levels when debt ceiling talks resume in a few short weeks. Just the fear alone that the media will put into the market is enough to convince retail investors the run is over and it’s time to get out. Expect the normal drama constituted by the Obama Administration, Congress and every other inability to fix the real problems within our countries infrastructure to take it’s piece of the gains we’ve seen over the last 2 weeks. While it looks like a Fed Taper will not be as catastrophized as it has been in recent months, the budget debate takes the stage as the next headline drama to trigger a pullback and of course, be ineffectively resolved.

Looking Ahead

Patience is key in finding a top to this market. In due time. With Yellen, low rates and a raising of the debt ceiling in January – we don’t see much shackling a further run. Foreign markets have stabilized with central banks buoying sentiment in Europe, Abe-nomics running rampant in Japan (asset purchases 60 trillion+ Yen) and solid data coming out of China to keep Asian shares steady. Keep an eye on the conglomerate of issues festering in the Middle East. A slight pullback accompanied with frenzied media, profit taking and bears smelling a top triggers a pullback in the range of 15,300 and 15,800 before and into 2014 but over the next 6-8 months, US policies lead a march of the Dow into 16,000.



Don’t Fight The Fed, Laugh At Them


As the new Fed Chair’s comments to the Senate yesterday are digested by the market – we have initiated a Heavy SELL rating on anything Federal Reserve. Statements,  outlooks, haircuts – etcetera. While we do expect more of the same rhetoric, it continues to baffle us. Common sense, logic, truth – we search and find not. I only say this half comically because it’s becoming ridiculous for anyone with experience or logic based thinking to continue to believe in the policies of, not just our leaders, but the most powerful bank in the world.

‘Go After What Makes Sense’

With Janet Yellen declaring that she sees no bubble’s developing anywhere according to current valuation levels, David Stockman quickly countered that “we have bubbles everywhere” — in junk bonds, stocks, and a housing market “riddled with speculators.”

According to Yellen – A stock market at record highs amidst a country with the number of unemployed at over 15,000,000(conservatively), nearly 100,000,000 Americans receiving government assistance from a government that currently – without loans, is unable to pay their bills and a market with a record amount of borrowed margin debt(over 400 billion) is not in bubble territory.

In a current market driven by emotion, the old I/E dissipates. But, realistically, what is this Yellen talking about? Everything that she’s saying is ok- is not ok. Everything points to issues, everywhere… yet we’re expected to buy a cheap sales pitch? More to come….

Don’t Fight – Accept and Prepare

The market has followed up Yellen’s comments with new all time highs. The trend continues. As we’ve been preaching for weeks, the dove-ish policies of Yellen would drive the Dow to 16,000. Laugh at their reasoning and accept the path that it takes your portfolio, but don’t Fight ’em.

Gold remained flat, even with the easy money reign to continue, most likely due to the fact that Bernanke’s old comments re-surfaced about the unpredictability of it’s pricing.

Moving forward, we see the market step onto a steeper cliff but to be supported by easy money in the short and medium term as we continue to present our case on the drastic turnaround down the road.



Yellen To Finally Make Direction of Policy Clear


Speculation this morning reaffirmed rumors that Janet Yellen’s position of near zero interest rates for the foreseeable future. Some saying through 2015, some saying 2017 – one thing is for sure, there will not be abrupt change in Federal Reserve policy.

Gold has reacted positively to the news, taking back some of its losses from early in the week. This news should be extremely bullish for gold due to the high level of inflation that will follow once these policies finally commence, but presently, as CPI is reported atleast, remains low. We believe the true number to be higher than reported. As previously stated, we believe gold will move forward non-linear with lower highs, flattening out in calm periods and eventually push towards lower lows over the next year.

Affirmation of such news should weaken the dollar significantly, but when taken into consideration the super cheap money policies of global currencies the dollar is pegged against, should not substantiate a significant move.

What we’ve been watching for in this round of earnings is strength and guidance of major employers. While jobless claims can blur reality by including part time jobs and the unemployment picture excludes those who have dropped out of the race, we’ve been keeping our eye on what big companies are doing. Some of the nations largest employers have been laying off for the past year or so, which we believe has the potential to accelerate at the time in which things get worse for the economy.

Consider over the last 6-12 months:

Walmart cuts 11,200 jobs from Sam’s clubs locations.

Cisco cuts 4,000 jobs citing slower than expected economic outlook.

Kellog recently announced they’d trim they global workforce by 7%, or 2,170 jobs despite higher than expected earnings.

JP Morgan to cut 19,000 jobs over the next two years, saving 1 billion annually, as less homeowners are underwater on mortgages, hence less employees needed to handle those issues.

Of course, the recent government employee layoffs.

Many of these companies are laying off despite satisfactory, or in some cases, stronger than expected numbers. While these numbers are only a small snapshot of recent activity and not enough to cause any real trouble, we believe weaker than expected performance for the overall economy that will result from a weakening middle class and drop in consumer spending will cause leading companies a need to squeeze more out of their balance sheet and ultimately commence in higher volume layoffs down the road. Just something to watch for.

Market Sits at 15,700 as Bears and Bulls Play Tug of War


Today we saw more affirmations of what we’ve been preaching. Gold and silver pushes lower, the dollar strengthens and media publications focus on the Fed.

Don’t fight the Fed but F the Fed, man. That’s not the story right now. It hasn’t been the story for the last six months. See my rundown from yesterday as to why.

Overall, the equities market is playing a waiting game. Are bulls going to be greedy and bears fearful? New highs if the case. The greed for bulls is getting a little more edgy. Or will the market take its gains and retreat back to low/mid 15,000’s as bulls take profits and bears see an overbought opportunity. That’s really the game right now. I believe the latter will be true in the short term.

We expect the low volatility environment to remain for the next few days but ultimately the market will make a decision as to go one way or the other.

Eyes on unemployment and CPI – the two numbers that mean something for the Fed… the rest is bananas as far as predicting what the Fed will do.


Snapshots: Ignore the Fed, Thoughts on Facebook, GDP and Gold


To open the week the market remained calm and awaited the next catalyst:

Last week’s GDP report of 2.8% in the third quarter strengthened the dollar and of course raised speculation of a change in monetary policy. This was up from 2.5% in the second, relatively tepid but much improved to what we’ve grown accustomed.  The number of times that we’ve seen in financial publications, “The increasing prospect of the Federal Reserve tapering its stimulus program” since June is absolutely unbelievable. This has come with improved housing reports, stronger than expected GDP, construction numbers, consumer spending and almost everything EXCEPT what Bernanke told us matters… Unemployment and Inflation. While neither of those goals are within reach and 11-1 Fed Board members continue to vote strongly in favor QE, the financial media has continued to harp on the issue. Anyway, you know my frustrations here… the beat goes on.

Decode the GDP number?

There’s more to the recent report than meets the eye. An increase in business inventories from the second quarter was a factor driving the number higher and both exports and imports fell significantly from Q2. While imports are looked at as unfavorable and inventories an investment on a balance sheet, sometimes a drop imports and increase in inventories can signify decreased consumer demand.


Gold is testing support at $1280 on a stronger looking dollar. Again, this strength is hormonal and will be exposed in due time. As we’ve continued to say… we believe gold will test the its 52-week lows at $1200, and as bears flock and bulls take losses – could make a move towards 1000 in the medium term. A final move may not be until Fed tapering. Long term will be an entirely different story… stay tuned.

Stock in- Play … Facebook ($FB)

Facebook broke support at 46.70 which is bearish for the company. We believe recovery back to 47.50 – 48.00 is in the cards but will ultimately correspond with lower lows. We don’t see this getting back to its 52 week high this year or shortly after.

Bottom line

We expect caution to be the story over the next few days as bulls decide if they have another push or bears take over on a retreat back to mid 15,000. Expect volatility to remain reasonable and anything but a break in 14,800 support keeps and major change US policy keeps the smart money long and DJIA and S&P going medium term.


Currency crisis builds, Gold Responds and No Correction In Sight


So, we’ve been out of it for a week due to travel or so but we’d like to get back on track with daily updates. Over the last two weeks we’ve been vehement on the medium term bullish signs in the market and the record highs to continue for both the S & P and Dow. Again, the cheap money macro-global central banking policies, risk on investor sentiment and  failure for any other asset class to make itself attractive are likely to continue to drive equities higher in the recent non-linear fashion.

Recent Developments

FOREX – The battle of the weakest is breaching new grounds. The dollar hit 52 week lows at more than 1.38 EUR/USD in late October due to expectation of Dove-ish Policy, but was beat out today as the European Central Bank followed suit by not so shockingly deciding to keep interest rates at .025 for the near term due to… lack of inflation. A strong GDP number also aided in strengthening the dollar.

This currency bubble continues to grow. Since 2008, bubbles have been the talk of the market – every analyst and doomsday-er looking for the next major pop. When looking at debt/GDP levels of developed nations, accompanied by the amount of loaned money added each month– you cannot deny the underlying fundamentals of the currency crisis building. Both the US, and Europe have undergone a massive increase of currency supply only to be displeased with low levels on inflation. Inflation is a typical 16-24 month trail of asset purchases, the impatient central banks need for immediate gratification lead them to purchase more now, which will follow with massive inflation– and in some demographics hyperinflation down the road.

Precious Metals– The same events have led to a stronger dollar and weaker Gold price. We believe the strength in the dollar is extremely misleading but will continue as the Euro Zone, in a much more severe predicament economically, pushes their central bank further than we are willing to. ***A break of support at $1280/ounce could lead a sharper move to June lows below $1200.

Bottom Line

We’re excited for long opportunities in equities into 2014. In a longer term range, we’re isolating specific commodities and ETFs sensitive to inflation and a rise in interest rates. The investment opportunities being created by central bankers are eye-opening, but as we’ve preached, we also believe in not ‘fighting the Fed’ for the short term.

We’re looking for the DJIA will trade between 15,300-16,000 within that period, with a possible break of the unprecedented 16,000 mark. Of course we expect this to be accompanied by worry over Federal Reserve Policies and the Budget ‘showdown’ in December, both of which are extremely serious issues concerning the future of our currency and economic standing, but will not be dealt with as such. We’ll be watching closely for any changes from now until January and ready to respond pro-actively.





Short Term Chip Trades for End of Week and Why Earnings Won’t Steer the Market


On Wednesday, Boeing rallied and Caterpillar dived as the respective Big Board companies reported numbers. Boeing’s, a maker of firearms and weaponry, had a  revenue spike with an increase in arms sales, most likely a direct result of US Govt purchases flooding the system and sapping supply, which not only gave them heavy volume but allowed them to increase prices. Ever since the government bought out gun shops a few months back, prices in both ammunition and firearms have gone through the roof and it’s beginning to show in Boeing’s numbers.

Caterpillar is a maker of construction and mining equipment and missed earnings, revenue, and lowered expectations (guidance) for the rest of the year. Earnings fell 44% to $1.45 a share when estimates were for $1.66 a share. Revenues were nearly a billion below the consensus figure of $14.35-billion coming in at $13.42-billion.

Chip makers for cell phones and electronic devices had a major sell off today. Note, the Nasdaq(heavily tech stocks) was down about .60%. Most of the reason was a forecasted lower demand for micro chips in general in the next quarter. This was a case in point example of 3 companies– STMicroelectronics $STM, Radio Frequency Micro Devices $RFMD, and Broadcom and it driving a complete selloff across the whole industry. For the smaller companies that sold off strictly as a result of the market leaders weakness and nothing to do with their own reports, this almost always offers significant opportunity on the other side. All of these companies were down at least 5% today and have potential to correct by the end of the week.

CRUS -6%                            TQNT -6.7%                        CAVM -5.1%

SWKS -7.2%                        FSL -5.5%                             ATML -5.2%

Gold was down as the Dollar rebounded from the weakness shown earlier in the weak, which was initialized by the expectation of the continuation of Dovish Policy. On a technical basis, after unsuccessfully challenging resistance at $1,343.50/$1,344.02, prices pulled back to the first level of support at $1,330/$1,327.55.

We already know how I feel about Gold, but this quote emphasized it –

“short-term gold investors are shying away from making new investment in gold because of “hyper-bearish sentiment” for the metal on the internet and other forms of media, and the metal’s inability to rise despite all the positive factors” The precious metal has no business being as low as it is based on what’s going on around it, it’s driven by bullshit. Spells Opportunity.

As far as the market for a whole, weakness today comes with the volatility of a bull market. Things do not go in a linear direction, and we continue to see higher highs and higher lows. As long as the DJIA doesn’t break support at 14,700(see below, currently 15400) and the S&P continues to make new highs, followed by higher lows, we are seeing what we’ve expected. I actually think that earnings season has less of an impact that it ever has on the overall market sentiment.


Tuesday October 22nd – Market Smells More Easy Money Amidst No Job Growth And Dying Middle Class

Today, the awaited Jobs data was reported and reflected the tepid environment for growth we continue to be mired in. With a number of policies specifically designed to spur growth, such as investments in Education and Infrastructure and of course the infamous Quantitative Easing measures by the Federal Reserve have done nothing to substantiate a recovery in the economic environment.

While the real unemployment number sits well into the low teens, the 7.2% reported number has remained flat since last month and that is not considering the recent government furloughs.

In reaction to this news the market was up cautiously on the Open and has felt volatility in Tech throughout the day. Investors are seeing how others react to this news. Their caution won’t overpower their greed and all time highs are within reach in the next couple of weeks, if not sooner. Gold and Silver are up future inflation and more de-valued dollars.

Unfortunately for the economy and the health of our middle class, the largest crisis facing the country right now – this is more dreary news. With a dwindling number of manufacturing jobs, a record number of entitlements relying upon a bankrupt government, and rising healthcare costs, rising costs of education and the hidden tax of inflation – the middle class is being decimated. Without a real turn around spurred without manipulation – IE not aided by the Federal Reserve, this is likely to go unchanged.

As the gap between the rich and the poor continues to grow, more and more cities will begin to look like Detroit and America is slowly begin to resemble that of a third world country. The numbers don’t lie.



Monday, October 21st – A Flat Day Across The Board As Investors Await Jobs Data

As domestic and global markets begin to warm up to the idea that there isn’t much holding this market back over the next few months, Aussie and Asian shares approached multi-years highs on Monday. While we believe in diversifying overseas, it’s important to realize that never before have global markets been so correlated – in other words, when things are going well at home, smaller global markets tend to follow suit. Tracking markets that trade overnight can give you a good indicator of what we’ll be looking at tonight.

We believe we are approaching what is the last leg of this bull market. As the bulk of investors become more and more confident, we’ll look to get out and move into alternative investments, away from broad based equities. This will obviously depend on how things shake out with Federal Reserve Policy at the beginning of 2014. We’ve been bullish through and through all the fear over the last few months, and once the market reaches the point of euphoric confidence, it’s time to sell.

Gold and Silver are looking flat today as the dollar has weakened once again with anticipations of more easy money. All this means, very simply – is that there is being more dollars pumped into the system and since there is more, the dollars that are already present are worth less. I believe that in spite of this Gold and Silver should be trading significantly higher right, but investors don’t exactly know what to make of the recent plummet. Precious metals offer a significant buying opportunity for both safety and growth at these levels, however we believe they’ve has not reached it’s lowest point yet. We’re timing this closely.

Look for major market leaders to steer the way in their respective industries – with McDonald’s under the spotlight today.


Friday October 18th – Banks and Tech leading the way – Gear up Bulls

Today cautious investors who’ve been holding the market down since the debt ceiling resolve were finally beat out by the bulls. Investors who got in late in this market are still hesitant to sell, waiting for more gains which is another attribute adding to the bull market.

Earnings Season kicked off with Google exploding past $1,000 per share… a rare club to be in. When industry leaders have stellar earnings, generally the entire sector will trade up with it. An example is the strength that Facebook $FB, chip companies like Invensense $INVN and Radio Frequency Micro Devices $RFMD showed today – it’s not a coincidence. The explosion of handsets in electronic devices and all the chip manufactures that profit along with it is likely to be a trend in this earnings season.

Morgan Stanley also reported another excellent quarter, a direct result of growth in their business, lowering expenses, managing risk and the increased support of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. This will likely continue for the two or three quarters until their is a significant turnaround in the financial sector. Note: Goldman Sachs $GS had a tough quarter based on speculation of rigging commodities markets a few months back.

Nothing has changed, finally the caution in the market was broken by investors who see much more upside. Talk of Federal Reserve taper may rattle markets temporarily, but there is a very, very slim chance that the asset purchases will slow down next month. In the last 9 months, only 1 of the 12 Federal Reserve members(Esther George) has voted to slow down Dove-ish policy, that number does not turn around in one month.



Thursday 10/17/13 – AS FORECASTED – Crisis Fades, S&P hits unprecedented mark, and back to the Fed

At the open, you would have thought that investors were beginning to price in what will eventually will be the biggest financial mess ever to face us as a country, united. The Dow opened with a 100 point selloff, but steadied throughout the day to finish flat at 15,300.

Gold and Silver remained flat after a bit of volatility as traders try to scale whether the bottom is here, near, or coming. As we’ve stated, yesterday’s media crisis will soon be forgotten as was the June Federal Reserve selloff, the September taper surety, and now the debt ceiling. It’s on to the next, what will the Fed do in November?

The S&P, the supposed metric of the broad health of the economy made consistent gains and finished at an all time high. As major indices continue to break all time highs in the midst of joblessness, trade deficits, and debt woes – we wonder how long it can keep up. As I’ve eluded to in past commentary, we think it continues through 2014.

Years from now, when we have a 20/20 few into the financial past – this will go down as the great but empty bull market… there is nothing to substantiate it. However, we do believe in riding it, for all its worth. We don’t believe in fighting the Fed, but embracing their recklessness – as they will continue to weaken a deteriorated dollar. We have a few months to go, don’t break out your short pants yet.


Wednesday, October 16th – Short Term Bullish, Long Term Nightmare

As expected, the government reached an impasse and concluded that a re-opening of certain government employees and extension for spending would be pushed until a December-January window. More of the same, for which we can expect to see in the coming weeks.

The Dow pushed over 15,300 and S & P over 1,700 and commodities were mixed mid-week. We’re expecting an earnings season led by financial and tech to bring the DJIA past all time highs and the S&P to breach its 52-week mark. With Gold below 1,300 – we expect activity to be less volatile than in recent months, showing weakness as media and government crisis’ are averted but upside with more easy money.

The market reacted strongly to news of the bipartisan deal, keeping its recent trend of short-sightedness. Since there is absolutely no reason to believe that our country’s financial heads will have the balance sheet in check by early 2014, we expect the euphoria of this bull market to continue until a few weeks before the budget issues become real again

Talks of financial crisis, weakening of the dollar, ratings downgrades, and international fear about with the global reserve currency are beginning to surface, but we expect to fade in the next few weeks. This market should be looked at with an entirely different lens if you are a short term trader or long term wealth planner.

We believe that the proper allocation of assets to take advantage of what will go down as the most unwarranted bull market in history and those that are position for breaks in trend lines in major indexes allows extraordinary performance in a time that is becoming easier and easier to call government/Fed bluffs while keeping an eye on the changing landscape of the pillars of which a nations wealth is upheld – and see age-old cracks in those pillars slowly surfacing.



Monday, October 14th

This week, Republicans and Democrats square off for once and for all on debt-ceiling negotiations. We expect the market to fight through the volatility and push higher, bracing for earnings season. Of course, that is contingent on what we believe will be an eleventh hour deal to end the partial shutdown, move the budget debate to November 15th and avoid a Government default to investors by any means necessary. The Democrats have leverage in the fact that a default could seriously rattle global markets and in the last two years the US Govt has cut spending more than in any other two years in our history. While a default is inevitable- neither side of the aisle is ready to face that reality yet.

Remember – In recent months the wall of worry has built in very similar fashion with the previous sequester debate, conflict in Syria, and Federal Reserve policy. Each time, as we’re seeing today – volatility results from cautious money moving to cash and bracing for a market changing event that not only doesn’t happen, but comes and goes with the next headline.

This morning stocks edged lower in pre-market trading with the Dow(mini) down as much as 110 points and commodities being slimmed down with the exception of Gold and Silver. With additional uncertainty, more seek shelter in these metals. We don’t expect the worry to last long enough to see any substantial bullish move in G + S and are ready for lower lows after negotiations before the major long term shift. 

As we’ve grown accustomed to, the political situation has once again greatly overshadowed what should be most important at this time of year – earnings season. Earnings are expected to grow 2% across the board and stable numbers from key industry leaders combined with temporary spending relief will give us a move past 15,500 by early November.



Friday, October 11th

Yesterday, we saw the biggest one point gain for The DJIA of the year – during the same week when the cold bloodedness of a default on government debt payments was seen as real by average investors. This, if anything – is a case in point example of the unreasonable market we’ve all been neck deep for the past 6 months…. really the past 5 years.

This is a market that fiends for positivity. Short term – whether it’s a week, month, or quarter ahead. If we have reason to believe things will be okay for as long as our vision allows, we breathe fresh air.

Let’s make it simple. The last week has been a euphemism  for the last half of 2013 and the euphoric bull market driven by easy money policies of the Federal Reserve. The last 6 months has been a euphemism for the last 5 years, in which we’ve almost doubled our national debt and the market has recovered past any reasonable limits from the 2008 crash. Again – the key factor… ultra loose monetary policy.

This is what we’re looking at for the next few weeks…..

The government will do what they have been – kick the proverbial can down the road and set a policy meeting for late November. As talks draw closer, it becomes more obvious that they are willing to do anything to avoid a default – as that will ripple through global markets.

The end to certain benefit programs is unfortunate but long overdue. This will hurt GDP and consumer spending but allow us to tread water and pay our debts. This’ll start to be priced into corporate earnings by the second quarter of 2014 as we continue to watch unemployment and inflation closely for change in Fed policy.

Bottom Line

As we’ve stated, we’re short term  bullish and with more easy money coming with Yellen as Fed chair, new all time highs for the DJIA are in sight through November. As the situation continues to brew over the next few months and the government chooses to either pay their debts or further close out Social Security and other entitlements – the broad market will begin to recognize what they should have a long time ago and wait until the last minute to price it in. When you combine this with the eventual Fed taper(early to mid 2014 – ballpark) and end to easy money, we’re right on the cusp of a brand new market paradigm.


Thursday October 10th

After the last few days of worry and clammoring in the market, we expect to see a correction to the upside over the next few days and while not linear, into the next few weeks.

The Republicans are already saying that they are willing to reach a compromise on the debt for ‘more spending cuts’ down the road. Essentially, getting the current administration to agree that they will take steps to reduce the deficit in the long run to extend it now. This is a joke, not only will it not happen but its a way to not have to deal with problems today.

For the market however, it’s a positive. In the short term, 1-2 months – this is a good thing. Investors will be relieved of any disasters and with Yellen as Fed chair, most will be expecting heavy bond buying until 2014.

We think the downturn in the market was mostly small retail, unsophisticated investors and the ‘smart money’ expects 300-600 points of upside over the next 6-8 weeks. Again, remember, the 14,700 mark on the Dow Jones has MAJOR support, so a break in that level would be a sell signal. Further support here is very bullish.

Banks and money managers have been scrambling to get rid of their Government debt and using options to hedge against a default. They’re a day late and a dollar short. The story here is not the debt ceiling, but the underlying sickness to our economy, inabilty to find growth, the un-free market controlled by monetary manipulation and the changing landscape here in the US. Major institutions that have been purchasing once invincible government debt over the last few months haven’t been able to see that that’s an antiquated method. It shouldn’t take an investment guru to see that an entity running quarter over quarter/year over year deficits/with frivolous spending habits is not someone you want indebted to you.

That day is gone. The game has changed. Change your strategy or die with it. Listen, I’m not a doomsdayer but this is common sense… making decisions based on facts. While we have a short term window for upside, the issues plaguing our economy that have been developing for years/decades should be a major factor in wealth planning.